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Premier League · Matchday 31Saturday 10 April · 15:00 · Villa Park
Aston Villa9th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Brighton3rd place
AVL 31%X 27%BHA 42%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Brighton lead by 78 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Brighton 0.2, Aston Villa -0.3.
  • If Aston Villa score first, they win 60% of the time
  • If Brighton score first, they win 69% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.5
Over 2.554%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Brighton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
131%3.22X27%3.70242%2.39
Double chance
1X58%1.72X269%1.451273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.554%1.85Under 2.546%2.17BTTS yes58%1.72BTTS no42%2.38

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Aston Villa · Columns: Brighton1-1 probability 12.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Brighton – Aston Villa23 August 20264-0
Aston Villa – Brighton11 February 20261-0
Brighton – Aston Villa3 December 20253-4
Brighton – Aston Villa2 April 20250-3
Aston Villa – Brighton30 December 20242-2
Brighton – Aston Villa5 May 20241-0