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Premier League · Matchday 31Saturday 10 April · 15:00 · Anfield
Liverpool5th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Newcastle United12th place
LIV 55%X 25%NEW 20%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Liverpool lead by 82 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Liverpool 0.5, Newcastle United -0.6.
  • If Liverpool score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Newcastle United score first, they win 48% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.1
Over 2.559%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Liverpool win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
155%1.81X25%4.02220%4.99
Double chance
1X80%1.25X245%2.231275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.559%1.69Under 2.541%2.45BTTS yes59%1.71BTTS no41%2.41

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Liverpool · Columns: Newcastle United1-1 probability 10.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Newcastle United – Liverpool23 August 20262-2
Liverpool – Newcastle United31 January 20264-1
Newcastle United – Liverpool25 August 20252-3
Liverpool – Newcastle United26 February 20252-0
Newcastle United – Liverpool4 December 20243-3
Liverpool – Newcastle United1 January 20244-2