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Premier League · Matchday 31Saturday 10 April · 15:00 · Vitality Stadium
Bournemouth7th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Manchester City2nd place
BOU 31%X 27%MCI 42%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Manchester City lead by 115 rating points.
  • Manchester City take 2.1 points per game away.
  • If Bournemouth score first, they win 60% of the time
  • If Manchester City score first, they win 69% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.6
Over 2.555%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Manchester City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
131%3.18X27%3.73242%2.40
Double chance
1X58%1.72X269%1.461273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.555%1.80Under 2.545%2.24BTTS yes59%1.69BTTS no41%2.45

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bournemouth · Columns: Manchester City1-1 probability 12.3%

Form

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Head to head

Manchester City – Bournemouth23 August 20262-1
Bournemouth – Manchester City19 May 20261-1
Manchester City – Bournemouth2 November 20253-1
Manchester City – Bournemouth20 May 20253-1
Bournemouth – Manchester City2 November 20242-1
Bournemouth – Manchester City24 February 20240-1