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Premier League · Matchday 27Saturday 27 February · 15:00 · Villa Park
Aston Villa10th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Chelsea4th place
AVL 40%X 27%CHE 32%

Prediction

  • If Aston Villa score first, they win 68% of the time
  • If Chelsea score first, they win 61% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.4
Over 2.557%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Aston Villa win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
140%2.48X27%3.65232%3.10
Double chance
1X68%1.48X260%1.681273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.557%1.76Under 2.543%2.32BTTS yes60%1.66BTTS no40%2.52

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Aston Villa · Columns: Chelsea1-1 probability 12.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Aston Villa – Chelsea4 March 20261-4
Chelsea – Aston Villa27 December 20251-2
Aston Villa – Chelsea22 February 20252-1
Chelsea – Aston Villa1 December 20243-0
Aston Villa – Chelsea27 April 20242-2
Chelsea – Aston Villa24 September 20230-1