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Premier League · Matchday 27Saturday 27 February · 15:00 · Old Trafford
Manchester United17th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Arsenal1st place
MUN 23%X 26%ARS 52%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arsenal lead by 183 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Arsenal 2.4 points per game, Manchester United 0.6.
  • Arsenal take 2.4 points per game away.
  • If Manchester United score first, they win 53% of the time
  • If Arsenal score first, they win 77% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.6
Over 2.549%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Arsenal win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
123%4.42X26%3.87252%1.94
Double chance
1X48%2.06X277%1.291274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.549%2.05Under 2.551%1.95BTTS yes51%1.94BTTS no49%2.06

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Manchester United · Columns: Arsenal1-1 probability 12.6%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Arsenal – Manchester United25 January 20262-3
Manchester United – Arsenal17 August 20250-1
Manchester United – Arsenal9 March 20251-1
Arsenal – Manchester United4 December 20242-0
Manchester United – Arsenal12 May 20240-1
Arsenal – Manchester United3 September 20233-1