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Premier League · Matchday 13Wednesday 2 December · 20:00 · Villa Park
Aston Villa9th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Everton14th place
AVL 46%X 28%EVE 26%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Aston Villa 2.2 points per game, Everton 1.0.
  • If Aston Villa score first, they win 74% of the time
  • If Everton score first, they win 58% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.0
Over 2.546%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Aston Villa win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
146%2.17X28%3.60226%3.83
Double chance
1X74%1.35X254%1.861272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.546%2.17Under 2.554%1.85BTTS yes51%1.97BTTS no49%2.03

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Aston Villa · Columns: Everton1-1 probability 13.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Aston Villa – Everton18 January 20260-1
Everton – Aston Villa13 September 20250-0
Everton – Aston Villa15 January 20250-1
Aston Villa – Everton14 September 20243-2
Everton – Aston Villa14 January 20240-0
Aston Villa – Everton20 August 20234-0