TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Premier League · Matchday 13Wednesday 2 December · 20:00 · St James Park
Newcastle United13th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Manchester United17th place
NEW 33%X 27%MUN 40%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Manchester United 0.1, Newcastle United -0.7.
  • If Newcastle United score first, they win 61% of the time
  • If Manchester United score first, they win 67% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.6
Over 2.558%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Manchester United win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
133%3.04X27%3.69240%2.50
Double chance
1X60%1.67X267%1.491273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.558%1.74Under 2.542%2.35BTTS yes61%1.64BTTS no39%2.56

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Newcastle United · Columns: Manchester United1-1 probability 12.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Newcastle United – Manchester United4 March 20262-1
Manchester United – Newcastle United26 December 20251-0
Newcastle United – Manchester United13 April 20254-1
Manchester United – Newcastle United30 December 20240-2
Manchester United – Newcastle United15 May 20243-2
Newcastle United – Manchester United2 December 20231-0