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Premier League · Matchday 13Wednesday 2 December · 20:00 · Brentford Community Stadium
Brentford6th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Arsenal1st place
BRE 20%X 26%ARS 54%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arsenal lead by 146 rating points.
  • Arsenal take 2.4 points per game away.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Arsenal 0.9, Brentford -0.1.
  • If Brentford score first, they win 51% of the time
  • If Arsenal score first, they win 79% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.6
Over 2.547%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Arsenal win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
120%4.92X26%3.91254%1.85
Double chance
1X46%2.18X280%1.261274%1.34
Goals
Over 2.547%2.12Under 2.553%1.89BTTS yes49%2.04BTTS no51%1.96

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Brentford · Columns: Arsenal1-1 probability 12.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Brentford – Arsenal12 February 20261-1
Arsenal – Brentford3 December 20252-0
Arsenal – Brentford12 April 20251-1
Brentford – Arsenal1 January 20251-3
Arsenal – Brentford9 March 20242-1
Brentford – Arsenal25 November 20230-1