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Premier League · Matchday 13Wednesday 2 December · 20:00 · Etihad Stadium
Manchester City2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Leeds United11th place
MCI 65%X 22%LEE 13%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Manchester City lead by 183 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Manchester City 1.8 points per game, Leeds United 0.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Manchester City 0.6, Leeds United -0.3.
  • If Manchester City score first, they win 86% of the time
  • If Leeds United score first, they win 40% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals2.0 – 0.8
Over 2.552%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
165%1.53X22%4.58213%7.72
Double chance
1X87%1.15X235%2.881278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.552%1.91Under 2.548%2.10BTTS yes47%2.11BTTS no53%1.90

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Manchester City · Columns: Leeds United2-0 probability 12.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Leeds United – Manchester City28 February 20260-1
Manchester City – Leeds United29 November 20253-2
Manchester City – Leeds United6 May 20232-1
Leeds United – Manchester City28 December 20221-3
Leeds United – Manchester City30 April 20220-4
Manchester City – Leeds United14 December 20217-0