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Premier League · Matchday 13Wednesday 2 December · 20:00 · Stamford Bridge
Chelsea4th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Crystal Palace18th place
CHE 59%X 24%CRY 17%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Chelsea lead by 116 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Chelsea 1.8 points per game, Crystal Palace 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Chelsea 0.0, Crystal Palace -0.9.
  • If Chelsea score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Crystal Palace score first, they win 45% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.0
Over 2.559%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Chelsea win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
159%1.70X24%4.21217%5.74
Double chance
1X83%1.21X241%2.431276%1.31
Goals
Over 2.559%1.69Under 2.541%2.45BTTS yes57%1.76BTTS no43%2.32

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Chelsea · Columns: Crystal Palace1-1 probability 10.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Crystal Palace – Chelsea25 January 20261-3
Chelsea – Crystal Palace17 August 20250-0
Crystal Palace – Chelsea4 January 20251-1
Chelsea – Crystal Palace1 September 20241-1
Crystal Palace – Chelsea12 February 20241-3
Chelsea – Crystal Palace27 December 20232-1