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Premier League · Matchday 21Saturday 16 January · 15:00 · Villa Park
Aston Villa10th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Manchester United17th place
AVL 39%X 27%MUN 34%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Aston Villa 2.2 points per game, Manchester United 0.6.
  • If Aston Villa score first, they win 67% of the time
  • If Manchester United score first, they win 63% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.4
Over 2.554%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Aston Villa win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
139%2.59X27%3.65234%2.94
Double chance
1X66%1.51X261%1.631273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.554%1.84Under 2.546%2.20BTTS yes59%1.71BTTS no41%2.42

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Aston Villa · Columns: Manchester United1-1 probability 12.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Manchester United – Aston Villa15 March 20263-1
Aston Villa – Manchester United21 December 20252-1
Manchester United – Aston Villa25 May 20252-0
Aston Villa – Manchester United6 October 20240-0
Aston Villa – Manchester United11 February 20241-2
Manchester United – Aston Villa26 December 20233-2