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Premier League · Matchday 21Saturday 16 January · 15:00 · Stamford Bridge
Chelsea4th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Sunderland20th place
CHE 55%X 25%SUN 20%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Chelsea lead by 116 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Chelsea 1.8 points per game, Sunderland 0.2.
  • If Chelsea score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Sunderland score first, they win 49% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.0
Over 2.553%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Chelsea win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
155%1.82X25%3.95220%5.10
Double chance
1X80%1.24X245%2.221275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.553%1.87Under 2.547%2.15BTTS yes54%1.86BTTS no46%2.17

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Chelsea · Columns: Sunderland1-1 probability 11.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Sunderland – Chelsea24 May 20262-1
Chelsea – Sunderland25 October 20251-2