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Premier League · Matchday 36Saturday 15 May · 15:00 · Villa Park
Aston Villa10th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Newcastle United13th place
AVL 48%X 27%NEW 25%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Aston Villa 2.2 points per game, Newcastle United 1.2.
  • If Aston Villa score first, they win 74% of the time
  • If Newcastle United score first, they win 54% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.2
Over 2.556%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Aston Villa win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
148%2.07X27%3.77225%3.97
Double chance
1X75%1.34X252%1.931273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.556%1.79Under 2.544%2.26BTTS yes58%1.72BTTS no42%2.39

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Aston Villa · Columns: Newcastle United1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Newcastle United – Aston Villa17 October 20260-1
Newcastle United – Aston Villa25 January 20260-2
Aston Villa – Newcastle United16 August 20250-0
Aston Villa – Newcastle United19 April 20254-1
Newcastle United – Aston Villa26 December 20243-0
Aston Villa – Newcastle United30 January 20241-3