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Premier League · Matchday 36Saturday 15 May · 15:00 · Stadium of Light
Sunderland20th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Bournemouth7th place
SUN 25%X 27%BOU 48%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Bournemouth lead by 145 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Bournemouth 1.8 points per game, Sunderland 0.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Bournemouth 0.5, Sunderland -0.2.
  • If Sunderland score first, they win 56% of the time
  • If Bournemouth score first, they win 75% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.6
Over 2.548%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Bournemouth win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
125%4.00X27%3.73248%2.07
Double chance
1X52%1.93X275%1.331273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.548%2.06Under 2.552%1.94BTTS yes52%1.91BTTS no48%2.10

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sunderland · Columns: Bournemouth1-1 probability 12.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Bournemouth – Sunderland18 October 20262-0
Bournemouth – Sunderland28 February 20261-1
Sunderland – Bournemouth29 November 20253-2