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Premier League · Matchday 36Saturday 15 May · 15:00 · Selhurst Park
Crystal Palace18th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Brighton3rd place
CRY 21%X 24%BHA 55%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Brighton lead by 193 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Brighton 2.4 points per game, Crystal Palace 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Brighton 0.2, Crystal Palace -0.9.
  • If Crystal Palace score first, they win 49% of the time
  • If Brighton score first, they win 78% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.8
Over 2.555%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Brighton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
121%4.79X24%4.15255%1.82
Double chance
1X45%2.22X279%1.261276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.555%1.80Under 2.545%2.24BTTS yes56%1.79BTTS no44%2.26

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Crystal Palace · Columns: Brighton1-1 probability 11.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Brighton – Crystal Palace18 October 20265-0
Brighton – Crystal Palace8 February 20260-1
Crystal Palace – Brighton9 November 20250-0
Crystal Palace – Brighton5 April 20252-1
Brighton – Crystal Palace15 December 20241-3
Brighton – Crystal Palace3 February 20244-1