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Premier League · Matchday 36Saturday 15 May · 15:00 · Stamford Bridge
Chelsea4th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Everton14th place
CHE 48%X 27%EVE 25%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Chelsea 1.8 points per game, Everton 1.0.
  • If Chelsea score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Everton score first, they win 55% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.1
Over 2.550%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Chelsea win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
148%2.08X27%3.67225%4.06
Double chance
1X75%1.33X252%1.931273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.550%1.99Under 2.550%2.01BTTS yes54%1.86BTTS no46%2.16

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Chelsea · Columns: Everton1-1 probability 12.7%

Form

Compare →
ChelseaLWWLW
EvertonDWDLL

Head to head

Everton – Chelsea17 October 20260-2
Everton – Chelsea21 March 20263-0
Chelsea – Everton13 December 20252-0
Chelsea – Everton26 April 20251-0
Everton – Chelsea22 December 20240-0
Chelsea – Everton15 April 20246-0