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Serie A · Matchday 18Wednesday 6 January · 17:30 · New Balance Arena
Atalanta13th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Como4th place
ATA 25%X 26%COM 49%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Como lead by 115 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Como 2.6 points per game, Atalanta 1.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Como 0.6, Atalanta -0.5.
  • If Atalanta score first, they win 55% of the time
  • If Como score first, they win 75% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.6
Over 2.549%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Como win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
125%4.03X26%3.80249%2.05
Double chance
1X51%1.96X275%1.331274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.549%2.03Under 2.551%1.97BTTS yes53%1.89BTTS no47%2.12

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Atalanta · Columns: Como1-1 probability 12.8%

Form

Compare →
ComoDWWWW

Head to head

Como – Atalanta1 February 20260-0
Atalanta – Como4 October 20251-1
Como – Atalanta25 January 20251-2
Atalanta – Como24 September 20242-3