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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Serie A · Matchday 18Wednesday 6 January · 17:30 · Stadio Olimpico
Lazio1st place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Inter2nd place
LAZ 25%X 25%INT 50%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Inter lead by 84 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Inter 1.6, Lazio 0.5.
  • Inter take 1.9 points per game away.
  • If Lazio score first, they win 53% of the time
  • If Inter score first, they win 74% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.8
Over 2.558%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Inter win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
125%3.98X25%3.98250%2.01
Double chance
1X50%1.99X275%1.341275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.558%1.72Under 2.542%2.38BTTS yes60%1.68BTTS no40%2.48

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lazio · Columns: Inter1-1 probability 11.5%

Form

Compare →
LazioWWWWW
InterWWWWL

Head to head

Lazio – Inter9 May 20260-3
Inter – Lazio9 November 20252-0
Inter – Lazio18 May 20252-2
Lazio – Inter16 December 20240-6
Inter – Lazio19 May 20241-1
Lazio – Inter17 December 20230-2