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Serie A · Matchday 18Wednesday 6 January · 17:30 · Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Napoli8th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Cagliari12th place
NAP 65%X 22%CAG 13%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Napoli lead by 159 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Napoli 1.4 points per game, Cagliari 0.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Napoli 0.5, Cagliari -0.6.
  • If Napoli score first, they win 86% of the time
  • If Cagliari score first, they win 42% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.9 – 0.7
Over 2.548%
Both teams score44%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
165%1.54X22%4.52213%7.72
Double chance
1X87%1.15X235%2.851278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.548%2.07Under 2.552%1.93BTTS yes44%2.28BTTS no56%1.78

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Napoli · Columns: Cagliari1-0 probability 13.3%

Form

Compare →
NapoliWLDWL

Head to head

Cagliari – Napoli20 March 20260-1
Napoli – Cagliari30 August 20251-0
Napoli – Cagliari23 May 20252-0
Cagliari – Napoli15 September 20240-4
Cagliari – Napoli25 February 20241-1
Napoli – Cagliari16 December 20232-1