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Serie A · Matchday 18Wednesday 6 January · 17:30 · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Milan5th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Fiorentina17th place
MIL 59%X 24%FIO 16%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Milan lead by 164 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Milan 2.0 points per game, Fiorentina 0.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Milan 0.5, Fiorentina -0.1.
  • If Milan score first, they win 82% of the time
  • If Fiorentina score first, they win 45% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.9 – 0.9
Over 2.552%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Milan win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
159%1.68X24%4.14216%6.08
Double chance
1X84%1.20X241%2.461276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.552%1.91Under 2.548%2.10BTTS yes51%1.97BTTS no49%2.04

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Milan · Columns: Fiorentina1-1 probability 11.3%

Form

Compare →
MilanDWWLW

Head to head

Fiorentina – Milan11 January 20261-1
Milan – Fiorentina19 October 20252-1
Milan – Fiorentina5 April 20252-2
Fiorentina – Milan6 October 20242-1
Fiorentina – Milan30 March 20241-2
Milan – Fiorentina25 November 20231-0