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Serie A · Matchday 22Sunday 31 January · 17:30 · New Balance Arena
Atalanta13th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Fiorentina17th place
ATA 50%X 27%FIO 24%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Atalanta lead by 95 rating points.
  • If Atalanta score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Fiorentina score first, they win 53% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.1
Over 2.553%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Atalanta win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
150%2.00X27%3.77224%4.24
Double chance
1X76%1.31X250%2.001273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.553%1.88Under 2.547%2.13BTTS yes55%1.80BTTS no45%2.25

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Atalanta · Columns: Fiorentina1-1 probability 12.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Fiorentina – Atalanta29 October 20262-2
Fiorentina – Atalanta22 May 20261-1
Atalanta – Fiorentina30 November 20252-0
Fiorentina – Atalanta30 March 20251-0
Atalanta – Fiorentina15 September 20243-2
Atalanta – Fiorentina2 June 20242-3