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Serie A · Matchday 22Sunday 31 January · 17:30 · Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Napoli8th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Inter2nd place
NAP 27%X 26%INT 47%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Inter lead by 123 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Inter 1.6, Napoli 0.5.
  • Last 5 games: Inter 2.4 points per game, Napoli 1.4.
  • If Napoli score first, they win 55% of the time
  • If Inter score first, they win 73% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.7
Over 2.556%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Inter win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
127%3.74X26%3.81247%2.13
Double chance
1X53%1.89X273%1.371274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.556%1.79Under 2.544%2.26BTTS yes58%1.71BTTS no42%2.41

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Napoli · Columns: Inter1-1 probability 12.0%

Form

Compare →
NapoliWLDWL
InterWWWWL

Head to head

Inter – Napoli5 September 20263-2
Inter – Napoli11 January 20262-2
Napoli – Inter25 October 20253-1
Napoli – Inter1 March 20251-1
Inter – Napoli10 November 20241-1
Inter – Napoli17 March 20241-1