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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Serie A · Matchday 22Sunday 31 January · 17:30 · U-Power Stadium
Monza16th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
Roma3rd place
MON 14%X 19%ROM 67%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Roma lead by 342 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Roma 2.2 points per game, Monza 0.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Roma 0.9, Monza 0.1.
  • If Monza score first, they win 36% of the time
  • If Roma score first, they win 84% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals1.1 – 2.5
Over 2.571%
Both teams score63%
Likeliest score1-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
114%7.10X19%5.39267%1.48
Double chance
1X33%3.06X286%1.161281%1.23
Goals
Over 2.571%1.41Under 2.529%3.43BTTS yes63%1.60BTTS no37%2.68

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Monza · Columns: Roma1-2 probability 9.3%

Form

Compare →
MonzaLWLLL
RomaDWDWW

Head to head

Roma – Monza24 February 20254-0
Monza – Roma6 October 20241-1
Monza – Roma2 March 20241-4
Roma – Monza22 October 20231-0
Monza – Roma3 May 20231-1
Roma – Monza30 August 20223-0