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Serie A · Matchday 22Sunday 31 January · 17:30 · Stadio Luigi Ferraris
Genoa11th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Lecce14th place
GEN 48%X 29%LEC 24%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Genoa 2.4 points per game, Lecce 0.6.
  • Genoa lead by 66 rating points.
  • If Genoa score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Lecce score first, they win 58% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 11%
Expected goals1.4 – 0.9
Over 2.539%
Both teams score45%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Genoa win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
148%2.10X29%3.47224%4.24
Double chance
1X76%1.31X252%1.911271%1.41
Goals
Over 2.539%2.56Under 2.561%1.64BTTS yes45%2.25BTTS no55%1.80

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Genoa · Columns: Lecce1-1 probability 13.6%

Form

Compare →
GenoaWLWWW
LecceLWLLL

Head to head

Lecce – Genoa1 November 20261-2
Lecce – Genoa24 May 20261-0
Genoa – Lecce23 August 20250-0
Genoa – Lecce14 March 20252-1
Lecce – Genoa5 January 20250-0
Genoa – Lecce28 January 20242-1