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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Serie A · Matchday 6Monday 12 October · 17:30 · New Balance Arena
Atalanta13th place
Full time3-1Rinvalo's pick: 2-0✓ Result correct
Venezia20th place
ATA 70%X 19%VEN 11%

What does the market say?

AtalantaDrawVeneziaRinvalo70%19%11%
Market61%22%17%

✓ Agree · both back Atalanta

Prediction

Predicted: 2-0
Key factors
  • Atalanta lead by 218 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Atalanta 1.2 points per game, Venezia 0.0.
  • If Atalanta score first, they win 88% of the time
  • If Venezia score first, they win 35% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.2 – 0.8
Over 2.557%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
170%1.42X19%5.28211%9.42
Double chance
1X89%1.12X230%3.381281%1.23
Goals
Over 2.557%1.75Under 2.543%2.34BTTS yes48%2.10BTTS no52%1.91

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Atalanta · Columns: Venezia3-1 probability 7.0% · final score

Form

Compare →
VeneziaLWLLL

Head to head

Atalanta – Venezia12 October 20263-1
Atalanta – Venezia1 March 20250-0
Venezia – Atalanta20 October 20240-2
Venezia – Atalanta23 April 20221-3
Atalanta – Venezia30 November 20214-0