TR
Picks
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Serie A · Matchday 6Sunday 11 October · 14:00 · Stadio Via del mare
Lecce14th place
Full time1-2Prediction correct
Bologna9th place
LEC 25%X 29%BOL 46%

What does the market say?

LecceDrawBolognaRinvalo25%29%46%
Market23%28%49%

✓ Agree · both back Bologna

Prediction

Predicted: 0-1
Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Bologna 0.2, Lecce -0.7.
  • Bologna take 2.0 points per game away.
  • If Lecce score first, they win 59% of the time
  • If Bologna score first, they win 76% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 11%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.4
Over 2.540%
Both teams score46%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Bologna win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
125%3.98X29%3.49246%2.16
Double chance
1X54%1.86X275%1.341271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.540%2.52Under 2.560%1.66BTTS yes46%2.19BTTS no54%1.84

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lecce · Columns: Bologna1-2 probability 8.7% · final score

Form

Compare →
LecceLWLLL
BolognaWLWWW

Head to head

Lecce – Bologna11 October 20261-2
Bologna – Lecce12 April 20262-0
Lecce – Bologna28 September 20252-2
Lecce – Bologna9 February 20250-0
Bologna – Lecce2 November 20241-0
Bologna – Lecce11 February 20244-0