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Serie A · Matchday 6Sunday 11 October · 14:00 · Stadio Olimpico
Lazio1st place
Full time3-1Rinvalo's pick: 2-0✓ Result correct
Monza16th place
LAZ 61%X 24%MON 15%

What does the market say?

LazioDrawMonzaRinvalo61%24%15%
Market60%24%17%

✓ Agree · both back Lazio

Prediction

Predicted: 2-0
Key factors
  • Lazio lead by 222 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Lazio 2.6 points per game, Monza 0.8.
  • If Lazio score first, they win 83% of the time
  • If Monza score first, they win 44% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.9 – 0.8
Over 2.552%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
161%1.64X24%4.22215%6.61
Double chance
1X85%1.18X239%2.571276%1.31
Goals
Over 2.552%1.93Under 2.548%2.07BTTS yes49%2.03BTTS no51%1.97

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lazio · Columns: Monza3-1 probability 6.2% · final score

Form

Compare →
LazioWWWWW
MonzaLWLLL

Head to head

Lazio – Monza11 October 20263-1
Lazio – Monza9 February 20255-1
Monza – Lazio10 November 20240-1
Monza – Lazio4 May 20242-2
Lazio – Monza23 September 20231-1
Monza – Lazio2 April 20230-2