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Serie A · Matchday 6Sunday 11 October · 17:00 · Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore
Sassuolo15th place
Full time1-1Rinvalo's pick: 1-2✕ Missed
Milan5th place
SAS 31%X 27%MIL 42%

What does the market say?

SassuoloDrawMilanRinvalo31%27%42%
Market23%25%52%

✓ Agree · both back Milan

Prediction

Predicted: 1-2
Key factors
  • Milan lead by 114 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Milan 2.2 points per game, Sassuolo 1.4.
  • If Sassuolo score first, they win 60% of the time
  • If Milan score first, they win 70% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.5
Over 2.552%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Milan win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
131%3.25X27%3.65242%2.39
Double chance
1X58%1.72X269%1.441273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.552%1.93Under 2.548%2.07BTTS yes56%1.78BTTS no44%2.28

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sassuolo · Columns: Milan1-1 probability 12.8% · final score

Form

Compare →
MilanDWWLW

Head to head

Sassuolo – Milan11 October 20261-1
Sassuolo – Milan3 May 20262-0
Milan – Sassuolo14 December 20252-2
Sassuolo – Milan14 April 20243-3
Milan – Sassuolo30 December 20231-0
Milan – Sassuolo29 January 20232-5