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La Liga · Matchday 26Sunday 28 February · 16:00 · San Mamés Barria
Athletic Bilbao7th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
Barcelona1st place
ATH 16%X 21%BAR 63%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Barcelona lead by 271 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Barcelona 2.2, Athletic Bilbao 0.4.
  • Barcelona take 2.4 points per game away.
  • If Athletic Bilbao score first, they win 41% of the time
  • If Barcelona score first, they win 82% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.1 – 2.2
Over 2.563%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
116%6.22X21%4.76263%1.59
Double chance
1X37%2.70X284%1.191279%1.27
Goals
Over 2.563%1.58Under 2.537%2.74BTTS yes59%1.70BTTS no41%2.42

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Athletic Bilbao · Columns: Barcelona1-2 probability 9.8%

Form

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Head to head

Barcelona – Athletic Bilbao27 August 20262-0
Athletic Bilbao – Barcelona7 March 20260-1
Barcelona – Athletic Bilbao22 November 20254-0
Athletic Bilbao – Barcelona25 May 20250-3
Barcelona – Athletic Bilbao24 August 20242-1
Athletic Bilbao – Barcelona3 March 20240-0