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La Liga · Matchday 26Sunday 28 February · 16:00 · Estadio La Rosaleda
Málaga20th place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
Atlético Madrid2nd place
MAL 14%X 21%ATM 65%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Atlético Madrid lead by 271 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Atlético Madrid 3.0 points per game, Málaga 0.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Atlético Madrid 0.5, Málaga -0.8.
  • If Málaga score first, they win 41% of the time
  • If Atlético Madrid score first, they win 85% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.0
Over 2.553%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score0-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
114%7.15X21%4.82265%1.53
Double chance
1X35%2.88X286%1.161279%1.26
Goals
Over 2.553%1.89Under 2.547%2.12BTTS yes48%2.08BTTS no52%1.93

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
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Rows: Málaga · Columns: Atlético Madrid0-2 probability 12.2%

Form

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Head to head

Atlético Madrid – Málaga19 August 20262-0