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La Liga · Matchday 26Sunday 28 February · 16:00 · Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Real Madrid3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Valencia19th place
RMA 78%X 15%VAL 7%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Real Madrid lead by 246 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Real Madrid 1.4, Valencia -0.5.
  • Last 5 games: Real Madrid 2.4 points per game, Valencia 1.0.
  • If Real Madrid score first, they win 92% of the time
  • If Valencia score first, they win 27% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.5 – 0.6
Over 2.559%
Both teams score42%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
178%1.28X15%6.6227%14.77
Double chance
1X93%1.07X222%4.571285%1.18
Goals
Over 2.559%1.69Under 2.541%2.45BTTS yes42%2.40BTTS no58%1.71

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Real Madrid · Columns: Valencia2-0 probability 14.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Valencia – Real Madrid8 February 20260-2
Real Madrid – Valencia1 November 20254-0
Real Madrid – Valencia5 April 20251-2
Valencia – Real Madrid3 January 20251-2
Valencia – Real Madrid2 March 20242-2
Real Madrid – Valencia11 November 20235-1