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La Liga · Matchday 25Sunday 21 February · 16:00 · San Mamés Barria
Athletic Bilbao7th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Celta Vigo10th place
ATH 50%X 28%CEL 23%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Athletic Bilbao 0.4, Celta Vigo -0.3.
  • If Athletic Bilbao score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Celta Vigo score first, they win 55% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.5 – 0.9
Over 2.543%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Athletic Bilbao win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
150%2.01X28%3.63223%4.42
Double chance
1X77%1.29X250%1.991272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.543%2.33Under 2.557%1.75BTTS yes47%2.12BTTS no53%1.89

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Athletic Bilbao · Columns: Celta Vigo1-1 probability 13.2%

Form

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Head to head

Celta Vigo – Athletic Bilbao30 August 20260-2
Athletic Bilbao – Celta Vigo17 May 20261-1
Celta Vigo – Athletic Bilbao14 December 20252-0
Celta Vigo – Athletic Bilbao19 January 20251-2
Athletic Bilbao – Celta Vigo22 September 20243-1
Celta Vigo – Athletic Bilbao15 May 20242-1