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La Liga · Matchday 25Sunday 21 February · 16:00 · Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Atlético Madrid2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Elche17th place
ATM 68%X 20%ELC 12%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Atlético Madrid lead by 181 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Atlético Madrid 3.0 points per game, Elche 1.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Atlético Madrid 0.5, Elche -0.7.
  • If Atlético Madrid score first, they win 87% of the time
  • If Elche score first, they win 37% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.2 – 0.8
Over 2.556%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
168%1.47X20%4.92212%8.58
Double chance
1X88%1.13X232%3.131280%1.26
Goals
Over 2.556%1.77Under 2.544%2.30BTTS yes49%2.04BTTS no51%1.96

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
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5
Rows: Atlético Madrid · Columns: Elche2-0 probability 12.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Elche – Atlético Madrid22 April 20263-2
Atlético Madrid – Elche23 August 20251-1
Elche – Atlético Madrid14 May 20231-0
Atlético Madrid – Elche29 December 20222-0
Elche – Atlético Madrid11 May 20220-2
Atlético Madrid – Elche22 August 20211-0