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La Liga · Matchday 35Sunday 9 May · 16:00 · San Mamés Barria
Athletic Bilbao7th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Málaga20th place
ATH 68%X 20%MAL 12%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Athletic Bilbao lead by 130 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Athletic Bilbao 0.4, Málaga -0.8.
  • Last 5 games: Athletic Bilbao 1.6 points per game, Málaga 0.4.
  • If Athletic Bilbao score first, they win 87% of the time
  • If Málaga score first, they win 38% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals2.0 – 0.7
Over 2.551%
Both teams score44%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
168%1.47X20%4.93212%8.64
Double chance
1X88%1.13X232%3.141280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.551%1.97Under 2.549%2.03BTTS yes44%2.28BTTS no56%1.78

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Athletic Bilbao · Columns: Málaga2-0 probability 13.6%

Form

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