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La Liga · Matchday 35Sunday 9 May · 16:00 · Estadio de Mestalla
Valencia19th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Atlético Madrid2nd place
VAL 24%X 27%ATM 49%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Atlético Madrid lead by 182 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Atlético Madrid 3.0 points per game, Valencia 1.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Atlético Madrid 0.5, Valencia -0.5.
  • If Valencia score first, they win 55% of the time
  • If Atlético Madrid score first, they win 77% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.5
Over 2.546%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Atlético Madrid win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
124%4.22X27%3.70249%2.03
Double chance
1X51%1.97X276%1.311273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.546%2.18Under 2.554%1.85BTTS yes50%2.01BTTS no50%1.99

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Valencia · Columns: Atlético Madrid1-1 probability 13.0%

Form

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Head to head

Valencia – Atlético Madrid2 May 20260-2
Atlético Madrid – Valencia13 December 20252-1
Valencia – Atlético Madrid22 February 20250-3
Atlético Madrid – Valencia15 September 20243-0
Atlético Madrid – Valencia28 January 20242-0
Valencia – Atlético Madrid16 September 20233-0