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La Liga · Matchday 35Sunday 9 May · 16:00 · Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Real Madrid3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Barcelona1st place
RMA 41%X 26%BAR 33%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Real Madrid take 2.8 points per game at home.
  • Derby match.
  • If Real Madrid score first, they win 66% of the time
  • If Barcelona score first, they win 60% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.6
Over 2.565%
Both teams score67%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Real Madrid win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
141%2.45X26%3.83233%3.02
Double chance
1X67%1.49X259%1.691274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.565%1.54Under 2.535%2.87BTTS yes67%1.50BTTS no33%3.00

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Real Madrid · Columns: Barcelona1-1 probability 10.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Barcelona – Real Madrid25 October 20261-2
Barcelona – Real Madrid10 May 20262-0
Real Madrid – Barcelona26 October 20252-1
Barcelona – Real Madrid11 May 20254-3
Real Madrid – Barcelona26 October 20240-4
Real Madrid – Barcelona21 April 20243-2