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La Liga · Matchday 15Sunday 6 December · 16:00 · San Mamés Barria
Athletic Bilbao7th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1High confidence
Real Madrid3rd place
ATH 20%X 24%RMA 56%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Real Madrid lead by 206 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Real Madrid 1.4, Athletic Bilbao 0.4.
  • Real Madrid take 1.9 points per game away.
  • If Athletic Bilbao score first, they win 49% of the time
  • If Real Madrid score first, they win 80% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.8
Over 2.550%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Real Madrid win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
120%5.11X24%4.13256%1.78
Double chance
1X44%2.28X280%1.241276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.550%1.98Under 2.550%2.02BTTS yes51%1.96BTTS no49%2.04

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Athletic Bilbao · Columns: Real Madrid1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

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Head to head

Real Madrid – Athletic Bilbao23 May 20264-2
Athletic Bilbao – Real Madrid3 December 20250-3
Real Madrid – Athletic Bilbao20 April 20251-0
Athletic Bilbao – Real Madrid4 December 20242-1
Real Madrid – Athletic Bilbao31 March 20242-0
Athletic Bilbao – Real Madrid12 August 20230-2