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La Liga · Matchday 28Sunday 14 March · 16:00 · San Mamés Barria
Athletic Bilbao7th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Valencia19th place
ATH 54%X 26%VAL 20%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Athletic Bilbao 0.4, Valencia -0.5.
  • If Athletic Bilbao score first, they win 80% of the time
  • If Valencia score first, they win 52% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.6 – 0.8
Over 2.544%
Both teams score46%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
154%1.85X26%3.79220%5.08
Double chance
1X80%1.25X246%2.171274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.544%2.29Under 2.556%1.78BTTS yes46%2.16BTTS no54%1.86

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Athletic Bilbao · Columns: Valencia1-0 probability 13.1%

Form

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Head to head

Valencia – Athletic Bilbao17 October 20260-0
Athletic Bilbao – Valencia10 May 20260-1
Valencia – Athletic Bilbao20 September 20252-0
Valencia – Athletic Bilbao18 May 20250-1
Athletic Bilbao – Valencia28 August 20241-0
Valencia – Athletic Bilbao20 January 20241-0