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La Liga · Matchday 28Sunday 14 March · 16:00 · Estadio La Rosaleda
Málaga20th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Rayo Vallecano12th place
MAL 24%X 27%RAY 49%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Rayo Vallecano lead by 117 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Rayo Vallecano 1.6 points per game, Málaga 0.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Rayo Vallecano -0.3, Málaga -0.8.
  • If Málaga score first, they win 56% of the time
  • If Rayo Vallecano score first, they win 76% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.5
Over 2.545%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Rayo Vallecano win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
124%4.10X27%3.72249%2.05
Double chance
1X51%1.95X276%1.321273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.545%2.23Under 2.555%1.81BTTS yes49%2.03BTTS no51%1.97

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Málaga · Columns: Rayo Vallecano1-1 probability 13.2%

Form

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