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La Liga · Matchday 28Sunday 14 March · 16:00 · Estadio Martínez Valero
Elche17th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Villarreal8th place
ELC 29%X 27%VIL 44%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Villarreal 1.1, Elche -0.7.
  • Villarreal lead by 83 rating points.
  • If Elche score first, they win 58% of the time
  • If Villarreal score first, they win 71% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.6
Over 2.555%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Villarreal win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
129%3.43X27%3.69244%2.28
Double chance
1X56%1.78X271%1.411273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.555%1.82Under 2.545%2.22BTTS yes58%1.71BTTS no42%2.40

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Elche · Columns: Villarreal1-1 probability 12.3%

Form

Compare →
ElcheWDDWL

Head to head

Villarreal – Elche17 October 20260-0
Villarreal – Elche8 March 20262-1
Elche – Villarreal3 January 20261-3
Elche – Villarreal4 February 20233-1
Villarreal – Elche4 September 20224-0
Elche – Villarreal16 January 20221-0