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La Liga · Matchday 28Sunday 14 March · 16:00 · Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Real Madrid3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Espanyol14th place
RMA 80%X 14%ESP 6%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Real Madrid lead by 264 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Real Madrid 1.4, Espanyol -0.5.
  • Last 5 games: Real Madrid 2.4 points per game, Espanyol 0.8.
  • If Real Madrid score first, they win 93% of the time
  • If Espanyol score first, they win 26% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.5 – 0.5
Over 2.559%
Both teams score39%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
180%1.25X14%7.1026%16.58
Double chance
1X94%1.06X220%4.971286%1.16
Goals
Over 2.559%1.70Under 2.541%2.42BTTS yes39%2.56BTTS no61%1.64

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Real Madrid · Columns: Espanyol2-0 probability 14.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Espanyol – Real Madrid22 August 20261-2
Espanyol – Real Madrid3 May 20260-2
Real Madrid – Espanyol20 September 20252-0
Espanyol – Real Madrid1 February 20251-0
Real Madrid – Espanyol21 September 20244-1
Real Madrid – Espanyol11 March 20233-1