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La Liga · Matchday 28Sunday 14 March · 16:00 · Campos de Sport de El Sardinero
Racing Santander16th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
Atlético Madrid2nd place
RAC 15%X 20%ATM 65%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Atlético Madrid lead by 246 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Atlético Madrid 3.0 points per game, Racing Santander 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Atlético Madrid 0.5, Racing Santander -1.1.
  • If Racing Santander score first, they win 38% of the time
  • If Atlético Madrid score first, they win 83% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals1.1 – 2.4
Over 2.569%
Both teams score63%
Likeliest score1-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
115%6.55X20%5.13265%1.53
Double chance
1X35%2.88X285%1.181280%1.24
Goals
Over 2.569%1.44Under 2.531%3.26BTTS yes63%1.60BTTS no37%2.67

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
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Rows: Racing Santander · Columns: Atlético Madrid1-2 probability 9.5%

Form

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