TR
Picks
Mon 19:45ATA1-0PAR59%Mon 19:45LOR1-0BRE44%Mon 20:00DEP1-0OSA43%Mon 20:00NEW1-0EVE42%Mon 20:15BEN2-0ALV77%Mon 20:15GIL1-0VSC44%Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%
La Liga · Matchday 12Sunday 8 November · 20:00 · Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Atlético Madrid2nd place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Barcelona1st place
ATM 25%X 25%BAR 50%

What's at stake

BarcelonaTitle83%79%72%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Barcelona lead by 130 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Barcelona 2.2, Atlético Madrid 0.5.
  • Barcelona take 2.4 points per game away.
  • If Atlético Madrid score first, they win 52% of the time
  • If Barcelona score first, they win 74% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.9
Over 2.563%
Both teams score63%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Barcelona win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
125%3.99X25%4.00250%2.00
Double chance
1X50%2.00X275%1.331275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.563%1.59Under 2.537%2.69BTTS yes63%1.58BTTS no37%2.73

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Atlético Madrid · Columns: Barcelona1-1 probability 10.6%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Atlético Madrid – Barcelona4 April 20261-2
Barcelona – Atlético Madrid2 December 20253-1
Atlético Madrid – Barcelona16 March 20252-4
Barcelona – Atlético Madrid21 December 20241-2
Atlético Madrid – Barcelona17 March 20240-3
Barcelona – Atlético Madrid3 December 20231-0