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La Liga · Matchday 12Saturday 7 November · 15:15 · RCDE Stadium
Espanyol14th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Deportivo8th place
ESP 40%X 29%DEP 31%

What's at stake

EspanyolRelegation14%23%28%
DeportivoRelegation5%6%11%

What does the market say?

EspanyolDrawDeportivoRinvalo40%29%31%
Market42%29%29%

✓ Agree · both back Espanyol

Prediction

Key factors
  • The market also backs the home side (42%).
  • If Espanyol score first, they win 71% of the time
  • If Deportivo score first, they win 63% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.1
Over 2.542%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Espanyol win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
140%2.52X29%3.39231%3.24
Double chance
1X69%1.45X260%1.661271%1.42
Goals
Over 2.542%2.37Market 47%Under 2.558%1.73Market 53%BTTS yes49%2.05Market 53%BTTS no51%1.95Market 47%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Espanyol · Columns: Deportivo1-1 probability 14.0%

Form

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