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La Liga · Matchday 12Sunday 8 November · 15:15 · Reale Arena
Real Sociedad5th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Rayo Vallecano11th place
RSO 45%X 27%RAY 28%

What's at stake

Real SociedadTop 411%8%6%

What does the market say?

Real SociedadDrawRayo VallecanoRinvalo45%27%28%
Market56%24%20%

✓ Agree · both back Real Sociedad

Prediction

Key factors
  • The market also backs the home side (56%).
  • If Real Sociedad score first, they win 71% of the time
  • If Rayo Vallecano score first, they win 58% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.2
Over 2.554%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Real Sociedad win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
145%2.24X27%3.70228%3.53
Double chance
1X72%1.40X255%1.811273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.554%1.85Market 57%Under 2.546%2.18Market 43%BTTS yes58%1.74Market 56%BTTS no42%2.36Market 44%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Real Sociedad · Columns: Rayo Vallecano1-1 probability 12.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Rayo Vallecano – Real Sociedad26 April 20263-3
Real Sociedad – Rayo Vallecano5 October 20250-1
Rayo Vallecano – Real Sociedad16 March 20252-2
Real Sociedad – Rayo Vallecano18 August 20241-2
Real Sociedad – Rayo Vallecano27 January 20240-0
Rayo Vallecano – Real Sociedad29 October 20232-2