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La Liga · Matchday 12Saturday 7 November · 20:00 · Estadio de Mestalla
Valencia19th place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
Real Madrid3rd place
VAL 13%X 21%RMA 66%

What's at stake

ValenciaRelegation14%19%25%
Real MadridTitle22%16%12%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Real Madrid lead by 246 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Real Madrid 1.4, Valencia -0.5.
  • Last 5 games: Real Madrid 2.4 points per game, Valencia 1.0.
  • If Valencia score first, they win 40% of the time
  • If Real Madrid score first, they win 86% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.0
Over 2.552%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score0-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
113%7.54X21%4.87266%1.51
Double chance
1X34%2.96X287%1.151279%1.26
Goals
Over 2.552%1.92Under 2.548%2.09BTTS yes47%2.14BTTS no53%1.88

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Valencia · Columns: Real Madrid0-2 probability 12.6%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Valencia – Real Madrid8 February 20260-2
Real Madrid – Valencia1 November 20254-0
Real Madrid – Valencia5 April 20251-2
Valencia – Real Madrid3 January 20251-2
Valencia – Real Madrid2 March 20242-2
Real Madrid – Valencia11 November 20235-1