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La Liga · Matchday 12Saturday 7 November · 13:00 · Estadio La Rosaleda
Málaga20th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Racing Santander16th place
MAL 43%X 27%RAC 31%

What's at stake

MálagaRelegation92%95%96%
Racing SantanderRelegation57%70%73%

What does the market say?

MálagaDrawRacing SantanderRinvalo43%27%31%
Market41%26%33%

✓ Agree · both back Málaga

Prediction

Key factors
  • The market also backs the home side (41%).
  • If Málaga score first, they win 69% of the time
  • If Racing Santander score first, they win 59% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.4
Over 2.559%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Málaga win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
143%2.35X27%3.73231%3.26
Double chance
1X69%1.44X257%1.741273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.559%1.70Market 57%Under 2.541%2.43Market 43%BTTS yes62%1.62Market 61%BTTS no38%2.61Market 39%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Málaga · Columns: Racing Santander1-1 probability 11.7%

Form

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