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La Liga · Matchday 12Saturday 7 November · 17:30 · Estadio El Sadar
Osasuna15th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Athletic Bilbao7th place
OSA 35%X 28%ATH 37%

What's at stake

OsasunaRelegation7%13%16%
Athletic BilbaoTop 416%10%9%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Athletic Bilbao lead by 79 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Athletic Bilbao 1.6 points per game, Osasuna 0.8.
  • If Osasuna score first, they win 66% of the time
  • If Athletic Bilbao score first, they win 67% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.3
Over 2.545%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Athletic Bilbao win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
135%2.87X28%3.51237%2.72
Double chance
1X63%1.58X265%1.531272%1.40
Goals
Over 2.545%2.22Under 2.555%1.82BTTS yes51%1.95BTTS no49%2.05

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Osasuna · Columns: Athletic Bilbao1-1 probability 13.8%

Form

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Head to head

Athletic Bilbao – Osasuna21 April 20261-0
Osasuna – Athletic Bilbao3 January 20261-1
Athletic Bilbao – Osasuna30 March 20250-0
Osasuna – Athletic Bilbao21 December 20241-2
Athletic Bilbao – Osasuna11 May 20242-2
Osasuna – Athletic Bilbao19 August 20230-2