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La Liga · Matchday 29Sunday 21 March · 16:00 · Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Atlético Madrid2nd place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Getafe12th place
ATM 67%X 22%GET 11%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Atlético Madrid lead by 187 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Atlético Madrid 3.0 points per game, Getafe 1.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Atlético Madrid 0.5, Getafe -0.5.
  • If Atlético Madrid score first, they win 88% of the time
  • If Getafe score first, they win 41% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.8 – 0.6
Over 2.542%
Both teams score37%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
167%1.50X22%4.55211%8.78
Double chance
1X89%1.13X233%2.991278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.542%2.36Under 2.558%1.74BTTS yes37%2.67BTTS no63%1.60

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Atlético Madrid · Columns: Getafe1-0 probability 16.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Atlético Madrid – Getafe14 March 20261-0
Getafe – Atlético Madrid23 November 20250-1
Getafe – Atlético Madrid9 March 20252-1
Atlético Madrid – Getafe15 December 20241-0
Getafe – Atlético Madrid15 May 20240-3
Atlético Madrid – Getafe19 December 20233-3