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La Liga · Matchday 29Sunday 21 March · 16:00 · Estadio de Vallecas
Rayo Vallecano11th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
Barcelona1st place
RAY 14%X 19%BAR 67%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Barcelona lead by 283 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Barcelona 2.2, Rayo Vallecano -0.3.
  • Barcelona take 2.4 points per game away.
  • If Rayo Vallecano score first, they win 37% of the time
  • If Barcelona score first, they win 85% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.0 – 2.4
Over 2.566%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
114%7.18X19%5.25267%1.49
Double chance
1X33%3.03X286%1.161281%1.24
Goals
Over 2.566%1.51Under 2.534%2.96BTTS yes59%1.70BTTS no41%2.42

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Rayo Vallecano · Columns: Barcelona1-2 probability 9.6%

Form

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Head to head

Barcelona – Rayo Vallecano31 August 20265-2
Barcelona – Rayo Vallecano22 March 20261-0
Rayo Vallecano – Barcelona31 August 20251-1
Barcelona – Rayo Vallecano17 February 20251-0
Rayo Vallecano – Barcelona27 August 20241-2
Barcelona – Rayo Vallecano19 May 20243-0